🔗 Share this article Addressing Europe's Populist Movements: Protecting the Less Well-Off from the Forces of Transformation More than a twelve months after the vote that handed Donald Trump a clear-cut comeback victory, the Democratic Party has still not released its postmortem analysis. But, last week, an influential progressive lobby group published its own. Kamala Harris's campaign, its authors argued, failed to connect with core constituencies because it failed to concentrate enough on tackling basic economic anxieties. In focusing on the threat to democracy that Trumpist populism represented, progressives neglected the bread-and-butter issues that were foremost in many people’s minds. A Warning for European Capitals As the EU braces for a turbulent era of politics from now until the end of the decade, that is a lesson that needs to be fully understood in Brussels, Paris and Berlin. The White House, as its recently published national security strategy indicates, is optimistic that “patriotic” parties in Europe will quickly replicate Mr Trump’s success. Within Europe's core nations, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) top the polls, supported by significant segments of working-class voters. Yet among establishment politicians and parties, it is difficult to see a strategy that is sufficient to troubling times. Major Challenges and Costly Solutions The issues Europe faces are expensive and era-defining. They encompass the war in Ukraine, maintaining the momentum of the green transition, addressing demographic change and building economies that are more resilient to bullying by Mr Trump and China. As per a Brussels-based thinktank, the new age of global instability could necessitate an additional €250bn in yearly EU defence spending. A major report last year on European economic competitiveness called for substantial investment in shared infrastructure, to be partly funded by jointly held EU debt. Such a economic transformation would stimulate growth figures that have flatlined for years. However, at both the EU-wide and national levels, there continues to be a lack of boldness when it comes to generating funds. The EU’s so-called “frugal” nations oppose the idea of shared debt, and Brussels’ budget proposals for the next seven years are deeply timid. In France, the idea of a tax on the super-rich is overwhelmingly popular with voters. But the embattled centrist government – while desperate to cut its budget deficit – will not consider such a move. The Cost of Inaction The truth is that without such measures, the less well-off will pay the price of financial adjustment through austerity budgets and increased inequality. Bitter recent conflicts over pension cutbacks in both France and Germany highlight a growing battle over the future of the European social model – a phenomenon that the RN and the AfD have eagerly leveraged to promote a politics of welfare chauvinism. Ms Le Pen’s party, for example, has resisted moves to raise the retirement age and has stated that it would focus any benefit cuts at foreign residents. Preventing a Political Gift for Nationalists In the US, Mr Trump’s promises to protect blue‑collar interests were largely insincere, as later healthcare reductions and fiscal benefits for the wealthy underlined. Yet without a convincing progressive counteroffer from the Harris campaign, they proved effective on the campaign trail. Without a radical shift in fiscal policy, societal agreements across the continent risk being ripped up. Policymakers must steer clear of handing this electoral boon to the populist movements already on the march in Europe.